Resignation by Mugabe now appears less likely

April 2nd, 2008 | EthioPolitics.com |

By Barry Bearak

The newspaper published no actual results from Saturday’s vote and attributed its conclusion to analysts. But the report is likely to be perceived as a decision by President Robert Mugabe and his key aides to continue his fight to hold on to the presidency rather than yield to Morgan Tsvangirai, his principal challenger .

Earlier this week, with unofficial results showing Mugabe behind, close advisers to the president were split about whether he should concede or force a second vote, according to a Western diplomat with knowledge of the talks. Members of Mugabe’s inner circle were said to be in talks with Tsvangirai.

A Zimbabwean businessman with close links to the governing party, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the nation’s military and intelligence chiefs discussed several options with the president after the vote appeared to go badly for him. These options included the outright rigging of the election, going to a runoff and even the “elimination” of Tsvangirai, the businessman said.

Mugabe was even willing to step down, the businessman said, but some of his advisers thought a runoff could be won if the government used every effort to get more votes from rural areas, where the president has traditionally been strongest.

By law, if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the votes, a second round of voting must take place within 21 days between the two top candidates. That interregnum, if it occurs, could allow the ruling party to use some of the same violent tactics it has used in the past against the opposition, tactics rarely employed in the most recent vote. On the other hand, the three-week campaign could allow for further talks that might pave the way for the 84-year-old president to make a graceful exit.

The country’s election commission has now gone nearly four days without releasing any results from the presidential election; the only announcements it has made are about seats for Parliament. The Herald said that “the two parties were likely to win between 96 and 99 House of Assembly seats each.” There are 210 Parliament seats.

Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change, has promised to release its own final tally on Wednesday. The vote count at each polling station was posted, and party workers took photos of every result and have been computing the total.

This public posting of results was negotiated between the parties this past year and was meant to prevent rigging.

Based on more than half the votes it had counted, the MDC earlier this week claimed that it was ahead by a margin of 60 percent to 30 percent. A projection based on a random sample of polling stations by an independent civic group, the Zimbabwe Election Support network, predicted that Tsvangirai would get about 49.4 percent of the vote and Mugabe 41.8 percent.

A runoff would place the independent candidate, Simba Makoni, in a pivotal role. The vote for Makoni, the nation’s former finance minister, was expected to be in the range of 8 percent to 10 percent.

According to a Western diplomat, Mugabe was at first reluctant to agree to a runoff because he considered it a humiliation.

A resignation by Mugabe, one of the world’s most enduring political leaders, would be a stunning turnabout in a country where he has been accused of consistently manipulating election results to maintain his 28-year lock on power.

Mugabe has not been seen in public since the election. Neither had Tsvangirai, until Tuesday evening when he spoke to reporters and diplomats at a Harare hotel.

He denied widespread reports that he or his advisers were in talks with the ruling party about a transition of power. He said he “would not enter into any deal” before the votes were officially announced.

“People are dying for change,” said Mark Tichagarika, a driver in Harare, the capital. “Everyone is talking about the election - at work, in the bus queues, in the shops. When will we finally get a change?”

He considered his own question. “Only the old man knows.”