Guerrilla oil war in Ethiopia?

June 26th, 2009 | EthioPolitics.com |

Strategy Page

Shades of Nigeria

The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has been threatening to attack oil exploration and production companies operating in Ethiopia’s Ogaden region.

The region is a predominantly ethnic Somali area. The ONLF attacked a Chinese oil operation in 2007 and killed over 70 people. Since early spring 2009 the ONLF’s threats to attack petroleum operations have increased.

A recent ONLF accusation claimed that oil companies had cleared 1600 square kilometers in the Ogaden, destroying vegetation and forcing people off the land.

Ethiopia’s and Nigeria’s political, topographical, and historical situations differ, but rebel outfits in Nigeria attack oil facilities in the Niger delta to inflict economic damage on the government and to get international headlines.

The ONLF’s limited attacks have certainly gotten media attention. Ethiopia knows oil and gas deposits are a national economic asset, which is one reason it has deployed troops and police to the region to protect exploration crews and drilling operations.

The stage is set for another “guerrilla oil war” in Africa.

Somalia

In a turnabout, the Ethiopian government said that it had “not ruled out” deploying troops in Somalia.

The government, however, cautioned that Ethiopia would not act alone, saying that other nations would have to be involved in a “response” to the Islamist militias who are battling Somalia’s Transitional National Government (TNG –also called the Transitional Federal Government).

The Ethiopian government called for an “international mandate,” which suggests a UN mandate or perhaps a request from the African Union and European Union.

The African Union is seeking more peacekeeping forces for Somalia. The AU has around 4,300 soldiers in Somalia, which is an inadequate force.

The key quote from the Ethiopian prime minister: “”We do not want to find ourselves in a situation where a so-called Ethiopian horse would be trying to take the chestnut out of the fire on behalf of everybody else…and this horse being whipped by every idiot and his grandmother.”"